THE SECURITY FINANCING TRAP: Can Somalia Sustain Its Security Transition Without Permanent External Subsidies?

        The Somali Policy Institute (SPI) is pleased to publish its latest policy briefing, “The Security Financing Trap: Can Somalia Sustain Its Security Transition Without Permanent External Subsidies?” Somalia’s security transition is increasingly framed around the transfer of operational responsibility from international actors to Somali security institutions. Yet this transition…
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The Future of AUSSOM: How the U.S. Decision on UNSOS Could Reshape Somalia’s Security Transition.

Somalia’s Security Transition at a Precipice The shift from ATMIS to AUSSOM was intended to herald true Somali ownership. Instead, it now faces a severe structural crisis following Washington’s opposition to financing UNSOS through UN assessed contributions under Resolution 2719. Without predictable logistical enablers such as vital supply chains, life support,…
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The Centrifugal State: Somalia’s Constitutional Impasse, Federal Fragmentation, and the Crisis of Governance in 2026.

Somalia’s federal project stands at a critical juncture in 2026. The convergence of contested constitutional amendments, evolving electoral reforms, and intensifying center periphery tensions has created a profound crisis of institutional legitimacy. This instability threatens to derail two decades of state-building efforts, risking a return to fragmented governance.The AnalysisThis paper…
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From Aid to Geoeconomic Partnership: Türkiye-Somalia and the Developmental State Challenge.

Can foreign partnerships lay the foundations for a developmental state, or do they risk entrenching new forms of economic dependency? As Türkiye’s engagement in Somalia expands beyond humanitarian assistance into infrastructure, security, trade, maritime governance, and strategic investment, the relationship is reshaping both Somalia’s development trajectory and the geopolitical landscape…
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