Can foreign partnerships lay the foundations for a developmental state, or do they risk entrenching new forms of economic dependency?
As Türkiye’s engagement in Somalia expands beyond humanitarian assistance into infrastructure, security, trade, maritime governance, and strategic investment, the relationship is reshaping both Somalia’s development trajectory and the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. Yet a critical policy question remains unresolved: Can external investment be translated into lasting national development, or will it reinforce structural dependence?
In this report, the Somali Policy Institute examines the evolution of Türkiye–Somalia relations through the interconnected lenses of geoeconomics, political economy, and state-building. Moving beyond conventional narratives of aid and diplomacy, the analysis assesses whether strategic partnerships can serve as catalysts for industrialization, institutional strengthening, and economic transformation in fragile states.
The report argues that the future of the partnership will be determined not by the scale of foreign investment, but by Somalia’s capacity to build effective institutions, formulate coherent industrial policies, strengthen economic governance, and convert external capital into domestic productivity, employment, and long-term resilience.
Drawing on comparative evidence from Ethiopia, Djibouti, Rwanda, and Libya, the study situates Somalia’s experience within wider debates on developmental states, South–South cooperation, and strategic competition in the Horn of Africa. It provides evidence-based analysis and actionable policy recommendations for Somali policymakers, international partners, researchers, and development practitioners seeking to advance sustainable and nationally owned development.
At a time when the Horn of Africa is becoming an increasingly contested geoeconomic space, this publication contributes to a broader conversation about how fragile states can exercise greater strategic agency, safeguard economic sovereignty, and leverage international partnerships to achieve inclusive and sustainable development.
Download the full report to explore the analysis, evidence, and policy recommendations.
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