Somalia’s federal project stands at a critical juncture in 2026. The convergence of contested constitutional amendments, evolving electoral reforms, and intensifying center periphery tensions has created a profound crisis of institutional legitimacy. This instability threatens to derail two decades of state-building efforts, risking a return to fragmented governance.
The Analysis
This paper evaluates the current deadlock by synthesizing historical progress from the Arta and Mbagathi processes to the 2012 Provisional Constitution with comparative political theory. By analyzing the structural parallels between Somalia’s challenges and the federal experiences of Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Bosnia, it identifies the root causes of the present tension: the lack of a defined fiscal federalism framework and the persistent ambiguity in power sharing mandates.